Veteran's Day Trivia Quiz

Our last Chapter meeting was held on 11/11/2006 and, as a result, the theme for our trivia quiz was the exploits of those players who were veterans. If you missed the meeting you can try your luck on the quiz below. The answers are shown at the bottom of the page. However, even if you feel compelled to peek, they are posted from right to left rather than left to right so you'll have to ponder over the answer also to decipher it.

Joe Elinich

------------------------------------------------------

1 - This pitcher won 14 games for the 1948 Philadelkphia A's and led the team with 127 strikeouts. He suffered multiple injuries in combat in WWII.

2 - This future vet led the AL in hits in 1941 with 218 and batted .359 with the Washington Senators.

3 - Who was the HOF pitcher who served as an anti-aircraft gunner aboard the USS Alabama in WWII?

4 - Astronaut John Glenn served with this HOFer as an Air Force squadron member in the Korean War.

5 - Name five WWII vets to throw no hit games in the Major Leagues. For extra points, name the three who did it twice.

6 - Who was the vet who won the 1950 AL batting title?

7 - Who was the vet to win consecutive AL batting titles in 1951-52?

8 - The St. Louis Browns benefited greatly from WWII and won their only AL pennant in 1944. What pitcher led the team in victories with 19 and who was the hitter to lead the team in home runs (20) and RBI (109)?

9 - Who led the AL in home runs with 22 in 1944?

10 - The Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Browns made trivia folklore in 1944. Who were the two players involved?

11 - In his last season (1942) before entering WWII, this pitcher compiled a 15-4 record for Brooklyn with an ERA of 1.83 to reach a total of 197 wins before going off to war at the age of 38. Who was he?

12 - Who was the WWII vet who won 20 games for a team that lost 90 in 1951?

13 - This Cincinnati war vet from 1945, started the first game of the 1950 World Series; his first start of that year.

14 - This WWII vet still holds the Pirate rookie record for RBI in a season with 116.

15 - This WWII vet allowed Mickey Mantle's first home run in 1951.

16 - Who is the WWII vet who has the most victories of any veteran in MLB history?

17 - Who was the first WWII vet to manage an NL team to a division title (1969).

18 - Who are the only two WWII vets to win 300 games in their career?

19 - Who were the two Pirate coaches in 1960 who were WWII vets?

20 - Which team had a "Creepy" WWII vet on their team from 1938-1943?

Answers:

1 - eissirB uoL
2 - sivarT liceC
3 - relleF boB
4 - smailliW deT
5 - nhapS, llewkcalB, and twice each relleF, skurT, and reeM red naV
6 - namdooG ylliB
7 - niaF sirreF
8 - rettoP sleN and snehpetS nreV
9 - nettE kciN
10 - llahxuN eoJ and yarG eteP
11 - hcnerF yrraL
12 - noskciD yrruM
13 - ytnstsnoK miJ
14 - syaboR naV eciruaM
15 - trepmuG ydnaR
16 - nhapS nerraW
17 - sirraH muL
18 - nhapS nerraW and nnyW ylraE
19 - skcurT ligriV and noskciD yrruM
20 - slanidraC ltS with ipserC ypeerC

Will the Pirates Regret Trading Oliver Perez?

It seems so short a time since those heady days of 2004 when Oliver Perez blossomed into the starter the Pirates desperately needed to anchor the rotation and lead the Pirates to their first winning season in the memory of far too many fans in Pittsburgh.

GM Dave Littlefield has certainly made some forgettable trades in his time at the Pirate helm, however, the trade of Brian Giles for Jason Bay and Oliver Perez stood out as the one deal that promised to get the leader on both offense and defense that the Pirates needed. When he arrived, Perez was still unproven although he did show a flash of brillance in 90 innings with the Padres in 2002.

Unfortunately, he regressed in 2003 and the Padres decided he could go in the trade for Giles. In five starts with the Pirates he posted a 0-3 record and with a 5.87 ERA but the talent was so obviously there that the Pirates felt he could be "the one".

In 2004, it all came together and although he only posted a 12-10 record, albeit for a 74-87 team, he dominated to such an extent that Pirate fans hopes were buoyed for 2005 as being the year the Pirates returned to contention.

And then the wheels fell off.

Injuries, immaturity and bad habits descended upon him and he struggled in 2005 before ending his season by breaking his toe in a fit of pique at a laundry cart and in 2006 before the Pirates gave up on him and included him along with Roberto Hernandez in a trade to the Mets for Xavier Nady.

But he's still only 24 was the cry. He's lefthanded and they tend to mature later. More importantly, he's lefthanded and he throws hard. And that, is a rare quality in a left handed pitcher. Will the Pirates regret trading him?

Maybe.

He is 24 and his arm is live and he has talent that is so obvious that any growing pains are worth suffering through for that promised string of dominating seasons that every team hopes they can get from a pitcher, in particular. Or, was 2004 just a rare occurance of everything working out just right for a player and is merely that magic season that sometimes comes along for a player during his career?

In 2005 I was a believer. I thought he could be the pitcher the Pirates needed to lead the staff and to be the stopper of losing streaks. Unfortunately, the more the data builds on his career, it appears to be the magical season that comes only once in a career.

In the chart below I have shown his major league seasons from age 20 through 24 for each team. The headings show his age, year, team he played for and his Batting Average Against (BAA), Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), and Hits, Homers, Bases on Balls and Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. The Major League averages in those categories per year are generally 9 Hits/9, 1 Home Runs/9, 3 Bases on Balls/9, 6 StriKeouts/9, a BABIP of .300 and a BAA of .260.

As such, Perez has steadily allowed the typical home run per nine innings, walked more than the typical three per nine and struck out more than the typical six per nine. There has been some fluctuation in those figures but good year or bad he has remained relatively consistent.

Hits per nine, on the other hand, has not. What stands out is that in the two seasons when he excelled (2002 and 2004) his hits per nine (and hence his BAA and BABIP) were considerably lower than the league average and uncommonly low for him as compared to any other point in his career, majors or minors.

Bill James once wrote that once a player does something in his career he has proven that he can do it again. He has also written that players tend to repeat their skillsets and rarely change once they have established themselves in the Major Leagues.

The more I see the data build, the more I have come to believe that 2004 was an abberation in Oliver Perez' career. My crystal ball is just as cloudy as the next fan's, however, I don't think the Pirates will rue trading him. 2004 was a wonderful season for Oliver Perez and the Pirates. However, 2004 is past and, in this case, the past is not prologue.

Joe Elinich

Age	Year	Team	BAA	BABIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9
20	2002	SD	.218	.250	5.6	1.1	4.7	7.8
21	2003	SD	.258	.364	7.1	1.4	5.6	8.5
21	2003	PIT	.283	.317	9.3	0.6	4.2	8.4
22	2004	PIT	.207	.280	5.5	0.8	3.4	9.7
23	2005	PIT	.264	.297	7.8	1.6	5.9	7.9
24	2006	PIT	.293	.331	8.4	1.1	5.6	6.8
24	2006	NYM	.293	.340	8.1	1.2	3.7	9.1

Post Season Award Voting

Well the folks on Baseball Think Factory are certainly going ballistic over the latest AL MVP award selection. I admire their passion but it is funny to see them attempt to dictate how sports writers should vote on post season awards. They can quote VORP all they want but the writers aren't buying it and Win Shares is something that just doesn't play.

As was the case in the release of the NL balloting, the writers were impressed by the player whose team took off in the pennant race once he got hot. Howard was doing well up to the point they traded Abreu and conceded the pennant and wild card. At that point the Phils were 49-55. With Abreu gone, and I believe that seriously affected the voters, Howard got white hot in the final two months and the Phils finished with a 36-22 run to miss the wild card by three games. In August he posted a .348/.464/.750 line with 14 homers and 41 RBI and followed with a .387/.561/.763 line for September with 9 homers and 20 RBI as teams began to walk him a great deal (35 vs 22 in August). In effect, the story line on this one is that Howard refused to allow his team to give up even if the management did - and THAT is the stuff of myth that sports writers love. I haven't been in Philly in a while, I wonder if the fans feel any animosity toward Gillick for giving up on the team and trading Abreu?

Morneau is the same situation. The primates on BTF can yelp all they want but the Twins were going nowhere while, with the exception of June, Mauer was hottest when they were losing. He had an OK July and August and then a nice September. Morneau was starting to wake up in May but from June on, as the story on MLB.com illustrates, he was "the man". What I find amusing about their complaining is that while they push Santana as the best player on the team as compared to Morneau, everyone seems to miss is that while Morneau was hot in mid-May and onward it was also at that time that Liriano moved into the rotation and posted an 11-2 record until he went down with the injury. Of the 32 players who received MVP votes in the AL, six were pitchers. Liriano was not among them.

All in all, I think this is the year of the underdog. For Pete's sake, Joe Girardi won the Manager of the Year award and he was fired by his team. Certainly Leyland is the comeback kid as the manager who regained his lost credibility as a result of quitting on the Rockies. Howard, Verlander, Ramirez all were feel good stories of teams with no chance fighting hard to the end.

As for these post season awards, "The Bard" (no, not Josh Bard) aptly said, "It is a tale . . . full of sound and fury; signifying nothing."

They'll get over it.

Joe Elinich

Pirate Ineptitude(?) in the Off Season

Yesterday in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Bob Smizik, a local columnist, took the Pirates to task for their ineptitude in the post season free agent market and for past trade mistakes. You can read the article here

The one thing that always bothers me about the local media is it seems to remember every mistake the Pirates make and seemingly forget every success. The Pirates don't have a corner on dumb moves in baseball. Think the Red Sox knew Bronson Arroyo was going to be a success last year and Wily Mo Pena would be a dud? How about Coco Crisp? When Andy Marte is a stud next season will Boston's press excoriate them for trading him? Texas got a 14-10 record from Ryan Dreese in 2004. Think they felt that was fair return for Travis Hafner? The list goes on and on for all teams.

What bothers me is that he picked a trio that long pre-date Littlefield and a salary dump that was forced upon him. He could just as easily picked Giles, Kendall and Suppan to match Thomas, Pena and Rhoden. All are markedly similar to his selective trio and all DID occur under the auspices of Littlefield. Of course, that would not have fit a "let's rip on the Pirates" column. If he had used that trio we'd find that, as the trades of those three players have shaken out with post trades, the Pirates got Bay, Nady, Sanchez, Gonzalez and a brief appearance from Bayliss during this past season. I'd much prefer having that quintet as compared to the trio he traded.

There is one valid point in the column that was unaddressed. As he progressed down the list of high salary signings this off season showing what the Pirates cannot have, what about the supposedly $13mil the Pirates do have to spend in salary? The reports so far have indicated that Littlefield plans to split it on a RHP anchor for the rotation and a LHB 1bman or RFer. Scanning the list of free agents, that plan is another recipe for disaster in that the money will not draw the better player but rather the player who has been passed over by other teams. Instead, why not plunk the money on one player? Let's say 3yrs/$39mil. Prior to this off season, I had reached the conclusion that the Pirates would never be financially able to spend $10+mil on a player and, hence, could never attract the difference maker for the team. However, supposedly this year they can do it. So let's see which way Littlefield goes with this. With his current plan, the best case scenario in free agent signings, given his stated objectives, I could see would be David Dellucci, (who reportedly got $0.95mil in 2006) and Suppan again (who reportedly got $4mil). That's Ok but it would take most of this $13mil to entice them here and is that much different than the Burnitz/Casey/Randa moves of last season?

I doubt that any player worth $13mil on the free agent list would come here. So the question is can he trade for someone who is worth $13mil and then pay for him to stay here through the next three seasons as this team develops into the contender he thinks they will be. This is the moment he has to make that kind of commitment if this plan is to work. Bay, Sanchez, Gonzalez, Wilson, Nady and Castillo all have around 3+ years of MLB experience. In two to four years they will be able to walk. This is supposedly the moment that the Pirates have been waiting for. Now is the time they will have their brief window to contend. Now is the time to cement the relationship with the fans through a winning club. Now is the time they have the money. Now is the time we will see if they put their money where their mouths have been.

Joe Elinich

Who does Chris Duffy remind you of?

Watching Chris Duffy over the past two seasons, well partial seasons, I was thinking that he reminded me of Max Carey. Not that I ever saw Max Carey play (no matter what my younger brother says) but from his statistics and his "go get 'em" style of play in the field and his incredible base stealing ability. I compared the two and found some interesting parallels.

Duffy has had 440 ABs thus far in his two big leagues. His stat line (AVG/OBP/SLG) is .280/.336/.364. He has 28 steals in 31 chances.

Max Carey had 433 ABs at the conclusion of his second season in the big leagues. His stat line was .265/.338/.379. He had 27 steals but caught stealing attempts were not counted then.

Of course Carey debuted in 1910 as compared to Duffy in 2005. So I compared their stat lines against the league averages for their era. Their stat lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) through their first 440 at bats as compared to the league are:

Carey was -13/-11/+1, meaning that Carey was 13 points below the league average in hitting; 11 below in OBP and one above in slugging. Duffy was +9/-6/-75. Duffy, of course plays in a very power oriented era.

Defensively, Carey was +.017 in fielding percentage and 0.53 in range factor for his position , although he did play 40% of his starts in left field to that point. Duffy, on the other hand, is -.004 in fielding percentage and +.08 in range factor with all of his stats coming from center field.

Now such a small sample certainly does not mean that Duffy is a "future hall of famer" (talk about an over used phrase these days!) but when I watch him play I can imagine what it must have been like to see Max Carey play.

Who knows? If Duffy plays another 18 seasons in the majors like Carey did we may find ourselves talking about his HOF credentials also.

Joe Elinich

Carey's Career Stats

Duffy's Career Stats

General Manager Winter Meetings

Did you know that the top winner in Pirate history is left handed pitcher Wilbur Cooper (202) and the top single season winner is left handed pitcher Ed Morris (41)?

The current Pirate administration hopes that they have a similar success story among their current crop of left-handers and, given the current state of available free agent pitching in the Majors, the Pirates may find themslves in an enviable position at the start of the GM meetings in Florida. The Pirates have pitching to trade and the Pirates are still looking for that left handed bopper who can regularly pop one over the Clemente Wall without wasting any at bat in which he doesn't.

Looking at the current list of free agent first basemen (linked below), Dmitri Young and Carlos Pena would seem to fit the bill and then there is Sean Casey.

The second option is to go for the same quality in an outfielder and move Xavier Nady to first base where he looked very good defensively once he arrived from New York. Candidates are J.D. Drew, Trot Nixon, David Dellucci, Luis Gonzalez, Cliff Floyd and Barry Bonds (wouldn't that be something!).

The Pirates supposedly have $13 million to spend. I would not offer it to any one of them and who of them would take half so the Pirates could offer an equal amount to the veteran innings eater starter, preferably a right hander, they also feel they need this season. Who are the candidates? Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Jason Schmidt, Aaron Sele, Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver fit the criteria of veteran, good health (as much as can be expected of any pitcher) and past success.

My target? - Jason Schmidt. Why? They need a leader. He is not among the hitters, he could be among the pitchers. San Francisco appears to be in the process of disposing of it's old players; the Pirates showed considerable improvement and promise in the second half of last season and the amount, if spent in one place, is attractive. Can they find a taker?

Joe Elinich

2007 Free Agent List